If you want bare-metal backup and restore to work, DON’T exclude /dev and /proc or you will probably have to mkdir them from your live-cd restore environment before your system will boot as expected.
I run fsarchiver from the live system with no LVM (but I’m not running any databases like *sql) and it has been stable for years, countless restores to P2V with no issues - except before rebooting into the restored VM, you should modify certain files in /etc such as:
/etc/network/interfaces , etc/rc.local , etc/hostname , etc/hosts. And /etc/fstab if certain drives that would otherwise automount are not included in the VM.
Systemrescuecd** has fsarchiver built in and has been very handy for doing P2V to VMs and occasionally restoring bare-metal if an upgrade went sideways.
** distrowatch dot com/table.php?distribution=systemrescue
Regardless, always test your restores - in a VM if possible, otherwise to an external bootable USB or separate internal drive. Fsarchiver has proven more useful than tar because it stores all the metadata by default as part of the backed-up filesystem. (And it has compression and multi-cpu support.). It’s a wonderful free backup program for Linux.
www dot fsarchiver dot org/attributes/